ACCI

Surveys and Studies

ACCI Business Tendency Survey Report - 1st Quarter 2018

Major findings

  • The surveyed businesses' level of confidence regarding their current condition is very much negative as the last survey but their expectations regarding the coming six months has increased sharply.
  • Calls for better market and demand, administrative reforms and suitable infrastructure have increased.
  • The average indicator for security situation has improved compared to the previous survey, but in general the security condition seems very unstable.
  • Companies are optimistic about their employment prospects, but the number of respondents who say they have decreased their employees is about 21.5 percent more than those who say they have employed more people during last three months.
  • Businesses have reported that their order books keep shrinking.
  • The current condition for all three categories of businesses are negative but small and medium companies are much more affected compared to large companies.

All sectors, but trade, are optimistic about their business plans and prospects for coming six months.

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ACCI Business Tendency Survey Report - December 2017

Major findings

  • The overall business climate was slightly improving during recent surveys, but this survey shows a deterioration compared to the same periods of 2016.
  • The surveyed businesses' level of confidence regarding their current condition and as will as their expectations regarding the coming six months have deteriorated compared to the previous survey.
  • In contrast to three previous surveys of 2017, no region has reported a positive business climate indicator.
  • Agriculture expects the highest rate of employment (3.1) and Construction the lowest (-25.7).
  • Since the last season of 2016 manufacturing has gradually dropped in sectoral ranking.
  • Large companies keep improving, while SMEs suffer from a worsening business condition.
  • Businesses have reported that their order books keep shrinking.

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ACCI Business Tendency Survey Report - September 2017

Major findings
  • The overall business climate has slightly improved during recent surveys, but this survey shows no tangible change compared to the same periods of 2016.
  • The surveyed businesses' level of confidence regarding their current condition has also improved compared to the previous survey but their expectations regarding the coming six months have decreased.
  • Like two earlier quarters of 2017, only Nangarhar region maintains positive business climate indicator, but Kandahar and Balkh have also shown small signs of improvements.
  • Agriculture expects the highest rate of employment (13.1) and manufacturing the lowest (-9.4).
  • Since the last season of 2016 manufacturing has gradually dropped to the bottom of sectoral ranking.
  • Large companies keep improving, while SMEs suffer from a worsening business condition.
  • Businesses have reported that their order books keep shrinking.
  • The most important factor for business development is security; and none of the regions have reported a positive security indicator.

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ACCI Business Tendency Survey Report - June 2017

Major findings
  • The overall business climate has slightly improved during last two surveys, but no tangible change is reported compared to the same periods of last year. Companies remain optimistic about the coming six months, but the level of their optimism has decreased compared to the previous survey.
  • Regional differences are considerable. Business condition has sharply improved in Nangarhar and Herat region has also a positive indicator; while Kabul, Kandahar and Balkh reported no significant change in their deteriorating businesses conditions.
  • Agriculture is the only sector with positive business climate indicator in this survey while manufacturing and construction are the two most suffered sectors.
  • Businesses have reported that their order books keep shrinking, but they are in a better position compared to the same season in 2016.
  • Security, market and demand, and infrastructure are major desired improvements for business developments.
  • Construction, Trade, Manufacturing and Service have fired more people than those that they have hired during last three months. Only Agriculture's employment indicator is positive.
  • According to this survey companies are optimistic about their employment prospects (9.5), but the level of their optimism has decreased compared to the previous survey. Agriculture expects the highest rate of employment (33.1) and manufacturing the lowest (-0.6).

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ACCI Business Tendency Survey Report - March 2017

Major findings:

  • In general, surveyed businesses' level of confidence regarding their current condition has not changed meaningfully, but their expectations regarding the coming six months have increased.
  • Regional differences are considerable. Nangarhar and Herat regions have positive; while Kabul, Kandahar and Balkh have negative business climate indicators.
  • Agriculture is the only sector with positive business climate indicator in this survey.
  • Businesses have reported a decrease in their order books compared to previous survey, but they are in a better position compared to the same season in 2016.
  • Security, administrative reforms, market and demand are major desired improvements for business developments.
  • Companies across the sectors have fired more people than those that they have hired during last three months, but in general they are optimistic about the trend in coming six months.

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ACCI Business Tendency Survey - November 2016

Major findings
  • The lack of proper infrastructure is a cross-sectoral and countrywide problem and 71.7% of all surveyed businesses say they have infrastructural problems. 82% of them say that the lack of access to electricity is their utmost limiting infrastructural problem.
  • Business perception has slightly improved regarding the security condition in Kabul, Balkh, Herat, and Nangarhar regions compared to last year.
  • In total surveyed businesses' perceptions regarding the public tendering conditions have improved compared to last year; but still the majority of surveyed companies say they have problems in access to public tenders mainly because of “unclear and arbitrary procedures” and "political interferences".
  • Complaints regarding the tax system has increased compared to last year and about 63% of the surveyed businesses say they have problems in paying their taxes mainly because "taxes are too sophisticated and therefore not transparent”.
  • Custom conditions, especially in Herat and Balkh are reported very poor and businesses say that tariffs are “too sophisticated and non-transparent”.
  • Despite the challenges faced by women in businesses, the Business Bottleneck Survey shows a considerable support for women operating in the private sector.

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ACCI Business Tendency Survey Report - October 2016

Major findings
  • Businesses report a better condition compared to previous survey, but the level of their optimism regarding the coming six months has declined, which we assume is caused by seasonal effects.
  • Regional differences have decreased this time, with Balkh showing a sharp improvement and Nangarhar a considerable decline.
  • Businesses have reported a significant improvement in their order books compared to previous survey, but the overall balance of the surveyed companies' order books is negative.
  • Security, market demand and the need for administrative reforms are three major desired improvements for business developments.
  • In all four surveyed sectors, companies employ fewer people compared to the previous survey.

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ACCI Business Tendency Survey Report - June 2016

Major findings
  • Companies partially resume their optimism regarding the outlook of their businesses.
  • Regional differences are high with Balkh on negative and Nangarhar on positive ends.
  • Companies keep reporting very poor condition for their order books.
  • An overview of Kabul order books indicators reveals that since 2012 the order books situation is continually deteriorated.
  • Security, market demand and the need for administrative reforms are three major desired improvements for business developments.
  • In all four surveyed sectors, companies employ fewer people compared to the previous survey.

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ACCI Business Tendency Survey Report - March 2016

Major findings
  • Companies partially resume their optimism regarding the outlook of their businesses.
  • Despite a little improvement compared to last survey, except Balkh none of the provinces have a positive business climate indicator.
  • The order books are in a very poor condition, however a little improvement is seen in this survey compared to last survey.
  • While the security condition has reportedly improved in four regions (Kandahar, Herat, Kabul and Nangarhar), Kandahar is the only region that has recorded a positive security indicator in this survey.
  • The call for administrative reforms has gradually increased in recent surveys.

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